As political alignments begin to take shape ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s rumoured involvement in a proposed opposition coalition has sparked heated debate — and growing skepticism about the viability of any such alliance against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Analysts and political observers suggest that El-Rufai’s entry into the coalition equation, while notable, may in fact signal internal fractures rather than strength. Though known for his political clout and administrative experience, El-Rufai’s controversial legacy — particularly his polarizing rhetoric and strained relationships with key regional blocs — is raising concerns about the coalition’s cohesion and broader national appeal.
“There’s no denying El-Rufai’s strategic mind, but he also comes with deep baggage,” a northern political analyst told Madmo Newsroom. “His inclusion might please a few power players behind the scenes, but it risks alienating critical voting blocs — especially in the Middle Belt and South-East — who view him with distrust.”
More troubling for opposition hopefuls is the perception that El-Rufai’s political history closely mirrors that of Tinubu, his former ally. Both are seasoned power brokers from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and critics argue that El-Rufai’s presence in a so-called “alternative front” undermines any claim to fresh, transformative leadership.
“For a coalition to succeed against an incumbent like Tinubu, it needs credibility, a broad-based appeal, and unity of purpose. El-Rufai’s involvement risks fracturing that possibility before it even begins,” said a senior political journalist.
While El-Rufai has yet to formally confirm his 2027 ambitions or allegiance, speculation is rife over his next political move. Recent closed-door meetings with key opposition figures have only fueled rumours of his intention to position himself as a powerbroker or even a candidate in a “grand alliance” against the Tinubu-Shettima ticket.
However, with mistrust running deep among various factions, and the public increasingly weary of recycled leadership, insiders say the road to a credible and effective coalition is already littered with obstacles.
As one social media commentator bluntly put it: “With El-Rufai in the picture, the opposition might already be sabotaging itself from within.”
Whether this coalition gains traction or collapses under the weight of its contradictions remains to be seen but one thing is clear: 2027 is already shaping up to be as contentious as it is uncertain.
